In addition to adding Ricky Nolasco to the starting five, there are numerous viable free agent starting pitching options remaining on the market this offseason. Among all of them, power lefty Scott Kazmir may be the most intriguing.
For the past decade Twins fans know all too well the lack of power arms available for the rotation in Minnesota. During this span, the Twins have sent four starting pitchers to the mound on Opening Day who have averaged seven or more strikeouts per nine innings for their careers
- Francisco Liriano, Johan Santana, Vance Worley and Scott Baker - only Santana doing this on two separate occasions. Vance Worley, who's still an option to start on Opening Day in 2014 and did receive the nod on Opening Day last season, averaged only 4.62 K/9 through 48.2 innings the rest of the way in 2013, before ultimately getting demoted to AAA in May due to ineffectiveness. The list of every Twins' Opening Day starter since 1916 can be found here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/opening.shtml.
The Twins hope that one of their newest pitchers, Ricky Nolasco, is able to translate his game with ease from the National League to the American League, and continue to induce a fair amount of strikeouts in the process- something Vance Worley has so far been unable to accomplish. This idea could affect the Twins' decision as to who to start on Opening Day next season, as both of these pitchers have pitched primarily against NL teams to this point in their careers. Manager Ron Gardenhire may want to elect a starter on Opening Day who he could consider his ace, having also a history of strikeout effectiveness against AL clubs. Scott Kazmir may be their most likely candidate for achieving this goal.
After dealing with a number of injuries for the better part of the past five seasons, Scott Kazmir came back in a big way in 2013. He signed a minor-league deal with the Cleveland Indians last offseason http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/indians-sign-scott-kazmir.html and went on to surpass practically everyone's expectations. In 2013, he posted a solid 4.04 ERA, a good 3.51 FIP and even better xFIP of 3.36- the latter two statistics indicating that he's poised for a better campaign in 2014. He also struck out 9.23 batters per nine innings through a total of 158 last season, which may be the most impressive statistic considering he hadn't pitched effectively since 2008, when he posted a 3.49 ERA with a 9.81 K/9 rate through 152.1 innings with the Tampa Bay Rays. These statistics can be found on http://www.fangraphs.com/.
Now, Scott Kazmir, an unrestricted free agent, is in a desirable position. After facing the possibility of his career ending sooner than he'd like on more than one occasion and putting in the necessary amount of effort to once again become an effective starter in the majors, he's now likely able to harness a fairly lucrative deal this offseason and be ensured a rotation spot with a team during the 2014 season and possibly beyond.
The next deal for Kazmir will be good for himself simply because he may not have foreseen his current situation as a possible outcome just a few seasons ago, but his new team could benefit in a greater way. This is because his streaky history regarding his health will stop him from making the type of money that his overall talent could otherwise warrant- meaning his next contract could be of great value considering his potential upside; however, the significant question is whether or not such success is likely and how long will it continue for.
The Twins have shown a willingness to spend significant salary for the upcoming season in order to send more quality arms to the mound in 2014, as it took a considerable 4 years and hefty 49 million guaranteed to lock up their newest quality addition to the rotation- Ricky Nolasco
It's for GM Terry Ryan to ultimately decide whether or not the Twins can rely on Scott Kazmir next season and if they're willing to spend the appropriate amount of salary to take on such a risk. But the combination of risk and reward involved with Scott Kazmir offers a great chance for Minnesota to get ace-like production without committing to another big free agent contract or making a big splash in the trade market- sacrificing exciting prospects as a result. Whichever team decides to sign Scott Kazmir may not recieve overwhelming praise from its fan base, but that type of reaction could change quickly once Kazmir takes the mound next season.
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