Twins Looking for Upside with Phil Hughes Signing

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The Twins are at it again. Reports are saying that former New York Yankee right-handed starter and unrestricted free agent, Phil Hughes has agreed to a 3-year, $24 million pact with Minnesota, as reported by La Velle Neal. This signing comes just days after the Twins agreed to ink Ricky Nolasco to a 4-year, $49 million deal. 

Phil Hughes is coming off a sub-par season, where he posted a 5.19 ERA and lost a total of 14 games. This aforementioned ERA actually isn't absurdly different than his career ERA of 4.54, but there are some aspects that defend his true worth to a major-league team. These stats can be found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P.

For the first seven seasons in his relatively young career, he's had to deal with the abnormally-short fences at Yankee Stadium, featuring a left field fence at 318 feet and right field fence at just 314 feet. These aren't exactly welcoming dimensions to any type of pitcher- especially to Phil Hughes, a prototypical fly-ball hurler. The dimensions of Yankee Stadium can be seen below, though you may need to zoom in to receive the best visual.

Compare those measurements to the dimensions at Target Field, as seen below, a stadium that should better welcome Hughes' high fly-ball tendencies. This new park should offer more neutral left field and right field fences to Hughes, sitting at 339 feet and 328 feet from home plate, respectively.

Looking at Hughes' pitching statistics at his former home park, it's clear that some are bloated due in part by the extreme dimensions. In 2013, for every fly-ball that he induced, 15.0% of them left the yard while pitching at Yankee Stadium. Compare this to his HR/FB rate while pitching at away parks- a much better 6.7%. Comparing these two statistics, the difference in HR/FB splits between home and road games is glaring. Put simply, Hughes was about twice as likely to give up a home run while pitching at Yankee Stadium than he was while pitching in other ballparks around the league. 

Target Field, his new home park- heavily considered to be pitcher-friendly- should undoubtedly help Hughes lower his career HR/FB rate in 2014. Hughes was also relatively unlucky as a pitcher in 2013, not even really taking into account the dimensions at Yankee Stadium. In 2013, through 145.2 total innings pitched, Hughes' withstood a high BABIP, or batting average of balls in play, of .324. This is an unlucky and usual statistic, especially when considering his career BABIP of .294- which is about league average. Not taking stadium dimensions into considerable account, Hughes doesn't project to be as unlucky in 2014 by BABIP standards, according to www.fangraphs.com, which projects him to be at .294.

Taking into account more than one factor, it isn't likely that in 2014, Hughes puts up some of the gaudy statistics that he did last season as he compiled 78.1 of his 145.2 total innings while pitching at Yankee Stadium. The Twins are hoping - and possibly expecting - that he has a significant rebound next season. If his former home park's extreme dimensions and unlikely outcomes on balls put in play weren't enough to persuade Twins' GM, Terry Ryan, to bid for his services- maybe Hughes' career year in 2010 was.

During the 2010 season, while pitching in 106.1 innings at Yankee Stadium to a total of 176.1 overall, he posted a solid 4.19 ERA, 4.25 FIP and 4.13 xFIP, while winning 18 games and totaling a 2.5 WAR, or wins above replacement. He also holds a career K/9 rate of 7.56 while pitching in the American League, which should ensure Terry Ryan that such a rate will continue in 2014. 

The Twins would love for Hughes to return to his 2010 form at some point, and by giving him a three-year deal, he'll have the proper opportunity to be able to do so while in Minnesota. At the very least, this signing gives Minnesota another starting pitcher that has averaged more than seven strikeouts per nine innings in his career. This is an important aspect of his game that will likely have him considered by Twins' Manager Ron Gardenhire to be the possible starter on Opening Day 2014. 

Phil Hughes image source:

http://www.soraspy.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Phil-Hughes-1024x830.jpg

Possible Free Agent Target: Scott Kazmir

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In addition to adding Ricky Nolasco to the starting five, there are numerous viable free agent starting pitching options remaining on the market this offseason. Among all of them, power lefty Scott Kazmir may be the most intriguing. 

For the past decade Twins fans know all too well the lack of  power arms available for the rotation in Minnesota. During this span, the Twins have sent four starting pitchers to the mound on Opening Day who have averaged seven or more strikeouts per nine innings for their careers 

- Francisco Liriano, Johan Santana, Vance Worley and Scott Baker - only Santana doing this on two separate occasions. Vance Worley, who's still an option to start on Opening Day in 2014 and did receive the nod on Opening Day last season, averaged only 4.62 K/9 through 48.2 innings the rest of the way in 2013, before ultimately getting demoted to AAA in May due to ineffectiveness. The list of every Twins' Opening Day starter since 1916 can be found here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/opening.shtml.

The Twins hope that one of their newest pitchers, Ricky Nolasco, is able to translate his game with ease from the National League to the American League, and continue to induce a fair amount of strikeouts in the process- something Vance Worley has so far been unable to accomplish. This idea could affect the Twins' decision as to who to start on Opening Day next season, as both of these pitchers have pitched primarily against NL teams to this point in their careers. Manager Ron Gardenhire may want to elect a starter on Opening Day who he could consider his ace, having also a history of strikeout effectiveness against AL clubs. Scott Kazmir may be their most likely candidate for achieving this goal.

After dealing with a number of injuries for the better part of the past five seasons, Scott Kazmir came back in a big way in 2013. He signed a minor-league deal with the Cleveland Indians last offseason http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/indians-sign-scott-kazmir.html and went on to surpass practically everyone's expectations. In 2013, he posted a solid 4.04 ERA, a good 3.51 FIP and even better xFIP of 3.36- the latter two statistics indicating that he's poised for a better campaign in 2014. He also struck out 9.23 batters per nine innings through a total of 158 last season, which may be the most impressive statistic considering he hadn't pitched effectively since 2008, when he posted a 3.49 ERA with a 9.81 K/9 rate through 152.1 innings with the Tampa Bay Rays. These statistics can be found on http://www.fangraphs.com/.

Now, Scott Kazmir, an unrestricted free agent, is in a desirable position. After facing the possibility of his career ending sooner than he'd like on more than one occasion and putting in the necessary amount of effort to once again become an effective starter in the majors, he's now likely able to harness a fairly lucrative deal this offseason and be ensured a rotation spot with a team during the 2014 season and possibly beyond. 

The next deal for Kazmir will be good for himself simply because he may not have foreseen his current situation as a possible outcome just a few seasons ago, but his new team could benefit in a greater way. This is because his streaky history regarding his health will stop him from making the type of money that his overall talent could otherwise warrant- meaning his next contract could be of great value considering his potential upside; however, the significant question is whether or not such success is likely and how long will it continue for. 

The Twins have shown a willingness to spend significant salary for the upcoming season in order to send more quality arms to the mound in 2014, as it took a considerable 4 years and hefty 49 million guaranteed to lock up their newest quality addition to the rotation- Ricky Nolasco

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/twins-agree-to-terms-with-ricky-nolasco.html. 

It's for GM Terry Ryan to ultimately decide whether or not the Twins can rely on Scott Kazmir next season and if they're willing to spend the appropriate amount of salary to take on such a risk. But the combination of risk and reward involved with Scott Kazmir offers a great chance for Minnesota to get ace-like production without committing to another big free agent contract or making a big splash in the trade market- sacrificing exciting prospects as a result. Whichever team decides to sign Scott Kazmir may not recieve overwhelming praise from its fan base, but that type of reaction could change quickly once Kazmir takes the mound next season.

Update: Reports indicating that Scott Kazmir has agreed to a 2-year, 22 million deal with the Oakland Athletics. 

Scott Kazmir image source: 

http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site569/2013/0621/20130621__1-scott%20kazmir%20pitch_500.jpg

Possible Free Agent Target: Gavin Floyd

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Following reports of the Minnesota Twins inking right-handed-starter Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/twins-agree-to-terms-with-ricky-nolasco.html, it's time to further delve into the remaining starting pitching options on the free agent market. Prior to the terms of Nolasco's new deal with Minnesota becoming available to the public, many Twins fans are aware that the previous most-lucrative free agent deal in club history was a three-year, $21 million deal with Josh Willingham during the 2011 offseason. The recent deal with Nolasco trumps this two-year-old record by more than five million per season. 

One could consider the Nolasco deal a sign of new things to come in Twins Territory, as Terry Ryan, the acting GM of the Minnesota Twins, isn't known for spending considerable dollar amounts on the free agent market. This trend considered, Gavin Floyd appears to be as likely a target as anybody else on the market for Ryan.

Gavin Floyd, a serviceable, 30-year-old, 10-year vet and current unrestricted free agent, would be the type of signing that Twins fans have become accustomed to under Ryan. Floyd is coming off a vastly shortened campaign in 2013, which saw him undergo Tommy John Surgery in early May after making just five starts in order to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and a torn flexor muscle in the same arm. 

Terry Ryan has a history of buying-low on players with some level of upside, as he inked Mike Pelfrey, who was coming off a similar injury, to a one-year, low-salary deal worth $4 million with incentives this past offseason. A deal with Floyd should look fairly similar, as both veterans hold a career ERA of 4.48, and similar FIPs- 4.39 and 4.17 respectively, according to http://www.fangraphs.com/. Floyd's situation and its relation to Ryan's recent acquisition of Pelfrey makes Floyd a realistic target, as the Twins should have no issue finding the financial resources required to nab his services- especially considering the type of money shelled out for Nolasco just days ago. 

This type of signing may not be the kind Twins fans clamor for, as his career numbers aren't too different than Mike Pelfrey's, who didn't exactly become the topic of positive Twins-related conversations this past summer. As mentioned earlier, Floyd's career FIP is inferior to Pelfrey's, but when healthy he's able to strike out batters at a higher rate than Pelfrey, as seen by their career K/9 numbers of 7.06 and 5.21 respectively; these stats as well as the following according to http://www.fangraphs.com/. Throughout his career, Floyd has allowed close to league-average in terms of base runners, shown by his 1.34 WHIP. He's allowed an underwhelming home run to fly ball ratio of 11.9 percent for his career, but be mindful that many of these innings were pitched at his previous home park, the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Target Field, a pitcher-friendly park, should allow him to lower his HR/FB substantially. 

Prior to Pelfrey undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012 and Floyd in 2013, between the years of 2008 and 2011, the difference between each pitcher in terms of averaged innings pitched per season is less than just one inning. Pelfrey has the slight edge, averaging 195.4 innings per season during this span over Floyd's 194.9, which were calculated using compiled data on http://www.fangraphs.com/. It may be worth noting that during this span, Pelfrey pitched in the National League for the Mets while Floyd pitched in the American League for the White Sox, so pinch hitters for Pelfrey's spot in the lineup during games played in NL parks may have cost him some innings in the long run.

Terry Ryan signed Mike Pelfrey last season in part because he came at a low cost; however, even after a down year in 2013 which saw him post a 5.19 ERA - the current unrestricted free agent may be poised for a slight salary increase in 2014, as he showed considerable progression last season with the return of his velocity - he averaged 92.3 mph on his fastball in 2013, just 0.20 mph less than his career average - as well as a more performance-indicative FIP of 3.99 and an overall improved second half of the season. Pelfrey was also the league's third-most unlucky pitcher in 2013 by ERA-FIP standards, according to http://grubulub.com/who-got-lucky-in-2013/. 

Throughout his career, Gavin Floyd has similar velocity numbers to Pelfrey, as he's averaged 91.6 mph on his fastball to Pelfrey's 92.5 mph. Possibly more importantly, Floyd was averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball before leaving for injury in 2013, which could signify that he'll return with similar velocity as Pelfrey was able to post surgery. Pelfrey returned with good velocity in 2013, but was also throwing with some heat before leaving for injury, as he was averaging 92.9 mph on his fastball in 2012, only 0.60 mph better than he showed in 2013.

Assuming that Gavin Floyd receives a contract this offseason and that it contains less guaranteed salary than Pelfrey gets on a new deal, Ryan may find more value in Floyd than in Pelfrey. For this to come true, Floyd will need to regain his former velocity and continue to strike batters out consistently, while staying close to most of his other career norms. According to http://www.fangraphs.com/, Floyd has  arguably been more valuable than Pelfrey since coming into the league, as he's been worth 15.6 wins above replacement in his career (WAR) to Pelfrey's 10.2. Pelfrey reminded us last season that Tommy John-related injuries are becoming increasingly easier to come back from, so a successful campaign for Floyd in 2014 may be more likely than not. 

If the Twins sign Gavin Floyd to a deal this offseason it will almost assuredly be clear that his medicals checked out and they believe he'll be able to contribute effectively at a major-league level sometime in 2014. Terry Ryan may have shown an elevated interest in a quick turnaround through his signing of Ricky Nolasco, which may result in another signing similar to Nolasco's caliber- meaning he doesn't feel the starting rotation has been improved enough to this point. Regardless of whether this is the case or not, a Gavin Floyd signing should be low-risk and offer the Twins quality starting pitching depth- something they've lacked for a long time and will need before they're playoff contenders again. 

Update: Reports indicate that Gavin Floyd is signing with the Atlanta Braves on a one-year deal.

Gavin Floyd image source: http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/9/files/2013/11/7287966.jpg

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